Good morning Hanky's Friday! You know who is in my Hug Bucket? Greece. Every time I see Greece, I just want to give them a big O hug. But I don't, however, want to give them a one hundred and fifty billion euro and therein lies a problem.
早安Hanky's Friday!你知道誰在我的擁抱名單(註一)裡面嗎？希臘。每次我看到希臘我就想給她一個大大的擁抱。但是呢，我並不想給他們一千五百億歐元，這就是問題所在。
Ok, so Hank, I want to talk about sovereign debt today. But just to establish the outset that this is not a particularly political problem. Here is a chart of the gross federal debt by president as a percentage of GDP. As you will notice the fluctuations have nothing to do with whether the president is blue or red. The same is true in other developed countries as well.
好了，Hank，我今天要談主權債務。但僅做為開端，這不是一個特別的政治問題。這是一個在不同總統任內美國聯邦政府負債總額佔國內生產毛額的比重圖表。正如你會注意到的，總統是藍色(民主黨)或紅色(共和黨)與債務波動無關。在其他已開發國家，這也同樣是事實。
Okay, so I... To begin, let me tell you one of the great rules of economics: If you are rich, you have to be an idiot not to stay rich, and if you are poor, you have to be really smart to get rich. This is true for individuals, but it's also true for countries. Fancypants countries with fancypants currencies have all kinds of advantages over developing countries including that we are able to borrow money cheaply. In fact, because fancypants countries can borrow money so cheaply, it actually often makes sense to run a deficit. And the reason for this is that in the long term, our economy can grow faster than the cheap, cheap debt we're acquiring to pay for our economy to grow.
好了，所以我...一開始，我來告訴你一個偉大的經濟學規則：如果你很有錢，你一定是個白痴才不會持盈保泰，如果你很窮，你一定是真的很聰明才能變成富有。這對個人來說是正確的，但對國家來說也是。有強勢貨幣(註二)的華麗外表國家比起開發中國家有各式各樣的優勢，包括我們能夠便宜地借錢。事實上，因為華麗外表的國家可以這麼便宜地借錢，實際上往往認為維持赤字是理所當然。這樣做的原因是，從長遠來看，我們的經濟能夠增長得比那些我們為了支付經濟成長而不停獲得的、非常便宜的債務要快得多。
So that is not inherently bad for nations. The famous example for this is that in 1945 the United States had a debt that was more than one hundred percent of its GDP, and our deficit was more than twenty percent of our GDP, and that level of debt immediately preceded the largest expansion of our economy in history, also the largest expansion of our waistlines in history. Yes, that's funny, we did get fat.
所以那對國家來說並非本身就不好的。於此著名的例子是，在1945年美國有著超過其國內生產毛額的百分之百的債務，而我們的赤字超過國內生產毛額的20％，這種水平的債務馬上迎來了史上最大的經濟成長，也就是史上腰圍長得最寬的時候。是的，那很有趣，我們是發胖了。
So debt is not bad! But debt that you can't repay is very bad. The trick of fancypants countries being able to borrow money cheaply has always been that the market assumes that fancypants countries are basically guaranteed to pay you back. And when I said the market assumes, I mean the market assumed until two months ago when they realized that Greece, a fancypants country with a fancypants currency, maybe can't pay back its debts.
因此，債務不壞!但是，你無法償還的債務是非常糟糕的。華麗外表國家能夠便宜地借到錢的把戲一直是因為整體市場認為那些華麗外表國家基本上保證會還錢。而當我說到整體市場認為，我的意思是整體市場認為，直到兩個月前，當他們意識到希臘，一個有著強勢貨幣的華麗外表國家，也許不能償付其債務。
What's interesting is that Greece is probably technically in a better economic position than America was back in 1945. But for a variety of reasons, some of the very legitimate, the markets has cited that Greece won't be able to pay back its debt, which in turn has led to new debt being much more expensive, which has in turn made it completely impossible for Greece to ever pay its debt. You see! Hank, there's a circle, and it's vicious. That's where they got the term.
有趣的是，嚴格來說希臘可能比起1945年的美國，位於一個更好的經濟地位。但因為各種原因，一些非常正當的市場已經引言，說希臘將無法償付其債務，這接著導致新的借款更加昂貴，進而使希臘完全不可能償還其債務。你看!Hank，有一個循環，而它是惡性的。那就是他們怎麼得到這條款的。
This raises the possibilities that fancypants countries with fancypants currencies might not pay back the money we loan them, which will probably raise interest rates for a lot of fancypants countries, which could lead via the vicious circle to more default, higher interest rates, more defaults, higher interest rates, I could go on like this forever, which would be very bad, like we would yearn for the days of ten percent unemployment.
這就提出了擁有強勢貨幣的華麗外表國家，可能不還我們借給他們的錢的可能性。這可能對很多華麗外表國家提高利率，經過惡性循環，這可能導致更多的拖欠，更高的利率，更多的拖欠，更高的利率，我可以永遠像這樣繼續下去，這將是非常糟糕，就像是我們懷念那些百分之十的失業率的日子(註三)。
All of which is complicated by the fact that we're coming out of a worldwide recession, and the total economic output of the world is smaller. So there is less money coming in taxes, but governments still need to spend approximately the same amount of money. And for everybody who says that the problem is wasteful government spending, we aren't even close to a balanced budget. I mean, the United States would have to eliminate both of its two biggest expenses, social security and defense, in order to even come close to balancing the budget. The only other way to shrink the deficit would to be to raise taxes, which is not generally seen as a good idea during a recession.
所有這一切，因為我們正在全球經濟衰退之中，世界經濟總產值較小的事實而變得複雜。因此，稅收變得更少，但政府仍然需要花費大約同樣總額的金錢。對那些說問題的癥結是浪費的政府開支造成的人而言，我們甚至連平衡預算的邊都沒沾到。我的意思是，僅僅為了接近收支平衡的預算，美國將不得不剔除其兩項最大的支出，社會安全和國防。另一個唯一的縮小赤字的方法是加稅，這在經濟衰退之時一般不被看做一個好主意。
So the problem of sovereign debt may be not being as cheap as it once was. It isn't the fault of any one political ideology, it's kind of everybody's fault.
因此，主權債務問題也許不像從前一樣地便宜。這不是任何一個政治意識形態的過錯，這應該是大家的錯。
So basically Hank, I don't want to alarm you, but I do think we should all buy unicorn pinatas and hide our valuables in them. Actually Hank, the unicorn strategy won't work, because we have to keep loaning each other money, and we have to figure out a way to loan confidently, like we did back in 1945. That's why the EU and the IMF are working so hard to try to nail down a bailout plan for Greece. And if fancypants countries can't continue to convince us that our money is as safe with them as it is inside of a unicorn pinata, they will lose the cheap money privilege they have enjoyed for centuries. And history tells us that once a stupid rich man gets poor, he doesn't usually get rich again unless he is Donald Trump.
因此，基本上Hank，我不希望警告你們，但我是認為我們都應該購買Unicorn pinatas(註四)並把貴重物品藏在裡面。事實上，Hank，Unicorn策略是無效的，因為我們要持續互相借貸，我們必須找出一種方式去有信心的借貸，就像我們從前在1945年做的一樣。這就是為何歐盟和IMF非常努力嘗試為希臘制定一個救助計劃。而如果華麗外表國家不能繼續說服我們，我們的錢在他們那邊像是在Unicorn Pinatas裡面一樣是安全的，他們將失去他們享受了幾世紀的廉價資金特權。而且歷史告訴我們，一旦一個愚蠢的富人變窮，他通常不會再致富，除非他是Donald Trump(知名企業家川普)。
Hank, I'll see you on Monday.
Hank，星期一再見。
Hank, I told you I'll see you on Monday. That's your signal to stop watching, but nerdfighters, there's still time to participate in our secret project. Click here for more info! Here, I've made it a heart for you. Click!
Hank，我告訴你星期一再見了。那就是你停止觀看的信號，但宅男戰士們，還有時間來參加我們的秘密計畫。點擊此處獲得更多訊息!在這裡，我做了一個愛心給你。點擊!
註一：Hug Bucket: 原本應該是Hank借用Bucket List的意思所衍生出來的自創新字。意思是要擁抱的名單。
註二：Fancypants: 華麗的褲子在這裡是形容擁有華麗外表的國家或是強勢貨幣政策。
註三：yearn for the days of 10% unemployment: yearn可以當作思念、懷念或是憐憫、同情。照影片的原意應該是說時機很壞，讓人們想念那些10%失業率的日子。
註四：unicorn piñatas: 一隻獨角獸的名字，美國人常常把生日禮物或是萬聖節禮物藏在身體裡面。這邊是暗指大家可以把錢藏在裡面。
