We begin the day with what is looking more and more like the final fall of Aleppo.
這一天的開始看起來越來越像阿勒坡的最終淪陷。
The regime of Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Iran, and their affiliated militia are the ones responsible for what the UN called "a complete meltdown of humanity."
巴沙爾‧阿薩德政權、俄羅斯、伊朗,以及他們的附屬民兵是要為聯合國所稱「人性完全瓦解」的暴行負責的人。
The battle for Aleppo is over.
阿勒坡戰役結束了。
Are you truly incapable of shame? Is there literally nothing that can shame you?
你們真的沒有羞恥心嗎?真的沒有任何事能讓你們感到羞愧嗎?
Aleppo has fallen. The city, formerly the most populous place in Syria, was the site of a major battle between Bashar al-Assad government and rebel forces. The rebels controlled the eastern half of the city, and Assad, the west.
阿勒坡已經淪陷。這座城市,從前為敘利亞第一大城,是阿薩德政府和反抗軍勢力一場重大交戰發生的地點。反抗軍掌控城市東半部,而阿薩德則掌握西半部。
The story of Syria's civil war is a story of flip-flops. Early on, it looked like the Assad regime was finished. Intervention by Iran and support by Russia helped prop them up. Then, the rebels backed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar and several other sides turned the tides. And this happened a number of different times inside the conflict.
敘利亞內戰的故事是一個關於勢力消長的故事。早先,阿薩德政權看似要結束了。伊朗的介入和俄羅斯的支持幫忙支撐起他們。接著,由沙烏地阿拉伯和卡達以及其他幾方支持的反抗軍扭轉情勢。這在衝突其間發生過許多次。
September 2015 was a turning point in the Syrian civil war. That's when Russia intervened directly for the first time. Russian air strikes began pounding rebels under the cover of hitting ISIS. Russian air strikes played a decisive role in allowing Assad to encircle Aleppo. The bombardment made it very difficult for rebels to operate freely, allowing Assad to move towards Aleppo and eventually encircle the city.
2015 年 9 月是敘利亞內戰的一個轉捩點。那是俄羅斯首次直接干涉。俄羅斯空襲開始假借打擊 ISIS 的名義猛攻反抗軍。俄羅斯的空襲是阿薩德得以圍困阿勒坡的關鍵角色。轟炸令反抗軍難以自由運作,使阿薩德能夠前往阿勒坡,最後並包圍這座城市。
A siege is a military tactic, where forces on one side surround the other side, including any civilians trapped in there, and deny supplies from entering the city. There was a grim logic to imposing a siege on Aleppo. If you deny rebels food and medicine, eventually they lose the physical and mental capability to fight. Assad's vicious siege worked as intended. The rebels collapsed, allowing Assad forces, with Iranian and Russian backing, to stream into eastern Aleppo. Almost immediately, reports of massacres started filtering out of civilians being killed on the streets, of women committing suicide to avoid being raped by Assad's forces.
圍攻是一種軍事策略,一方的勢力包圍另一方,包括任何被困在裡面的平民,並拒絕補給品進入那座城市。對阿勒坡實施圍攻有它殘忍的道理。如果你拒絕給反抗軍食物和藥品,他們最終會失去體力和精神作戰。阿薩德殘暴的圍攻如計畫般奏效。反抗軍瓦解,阿薩德勢力以及伊朗和俄羅斯支援得以湧入東阿勒坡。幾乎是立刻,有關大屠殺的報導開始流出,平民在街道上被殺害、婦女們自殺以避免被阿薩德的軍隊強暴。
It's hard to know how many were killed in this initial purge. We do know shortly after the siege was broken, an evacuation agreement was struck, allowing, again, an unknown number of civilians to escape into other territory—mostly to the city of Idlib, still in rebel hands. The United States had the military power to break the siege of Aleppo and prevent the city from falling, but doing so would've been extremely dangerous.
很難得知有多少人在這場最初的肅清中被殺害。我們確實知道在圍城突破不久後,一項撤退協議達成,讓,再一次,未知人數的平民能夠逃到其它地區--大多數是到伊德利布市,當地仍為反抗軍所控制。美國擁有武力阻止對阿勒坡的圍攻,並避免城市淪陷,但這麼做會帶來極大危險。
Role of the United States
美國的角色
For one thing, the United States would've needed to have coordinated with rebels on the ground, some of whom were extremists. For another, it would've meant that American planes would've been flying in hostile airspace, with Russian planes. If the United States were to engage Russian planes, that would mean a direct exchange of fire between two nuclear-armed powers—a risk that very few in Washington were willing to take. Third, even if the U.S. had temporarily broken the siege of Aleppo and prevented it from falling, it would've required a tremendous and open-ended commitment to prevent Assad from simply reimposing the siege after Americans left.
其一,美國會需要與當地反抗軍協調,那之中有些是極端份子。另一方面,那就會代表美方軍機會飛在敵方領空,連同俄方軍機一起。如果美國與俄方軍機對戰,那就代表兩個核武勢力的直接交火--那是華府內很少人願意承擔的風險。第三,即便美方暫時阻止圍城並避免阿勒坡淪陷,那也會需要極大且無止境的投入,來避免阿薩德在美方離開後就再圍攻一次。
Whether or not you think an American intervention would've been worth the risks, there's no way to save Aleppo now. The city has fallen. And Assad's troops have gone in and committed untold atrocities, with who knows how many more left to go. The rebels have been dealt a devastating blow, one it's not clear they can recover from. This victory for Assad has been achieved with the support of two major international powers, Russia and Iran, and it has involved atrocities that are supposed to be prevented under international law. They fought horrifically—and they won. That's the lesson of Aleppo.
無論你是否認為美國的介入值得一試,現在已無法拯救阿勒坡。這座城市已經淪陷。阿薩德的軍隊已經揮進並且犯下難以形容的暴行,天知道還要發生多少這種事。反抗軍已被徹底擊潰,他們是否能從此重振旗鼓仍是未知數。阿薩德的這場勝利是因兩大國際勢力的協助而達成,俄羅斯以及伊朗,之中涉及在國際法下應當被阻止的殘忍行動。他們令人恐懼地進行戰爭--而他們贏了。那就是阿勒坡帶來的一課。
- 「支持、撐起」- Prop Up
Intervention by Iran and support by Russia helped prop them up.
伊朗的介入和俄羅斯的支持幫忙支撐起他們。 - 「扭轉情勢」- Turn The Tide
Then, the rebels backed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar and several other sides turned the tides.
接著,由沙烏地阿拉伯和卡達以及其他幾方支持的反抗軍扭轉情勢。 - 「打擊、使受挫」- Deal A Blow
The rebels have been dealt a devastating blow, one it's not clear they can recover from.
反抗軍已被徹底擊潰,他們是否能從此重振旗鼓仍是未知數。