How to Win at Rock-Paper-Scissors
如何在猜拳中獲勝
(With expert advice from Dr. Ben Dyson)
（此建議由專家 Ben Dyson 提供）
Rock-paper-scissors is an ancient game of cunning and chance. If only there was a way to improve those chances. Turns out there are a few key strategies.
「剪刀石頭布」是一種要靠策略和運氣的古老遊戲。要是有方法可以提高勝率就好了。其實確實有些關鍵的技巧。
Tip one: Know where to start.
祕訣一：知道第一把要出什麼。
The game is mainly about predicting and reading your opponent. So, what if you could predict their first hand? Research has shown that there is a slight preference for people to begin by playing rock. There are different theories about why—it could be because it is mentioned first in the name of the game, or it could because rock is similar to a fist, which seems powerful. So, if we know that, it gives us an edge—just play paper.
猜拳遊戲基本上就是要預測並讀出對手的心思。要是你能猜出他的第一把呢？研究顯示，大家猜拳時有可能會習慣在第一把出石頭。關於這點有不同的解釋－－有可能是因為在講這個遊戲的名稱時，我們會優先講到「石頭」（註一），也有可能是因為出石頭的時候會握拳，這是個比較強而有力的動作。如果我們知道這一點，就給了我們優勢－－出布就對了。
Tip two: If they lose, they'll probably switch.
祕訣二：如果他們上一把輸了，這一把可能會出別的。
Research shows that people who lose a hand tend to change, so there is a reasonable chance that our opponent will change to scissors or paper. That gives us our second edge—just play scissors, and we should either win or draw. But this isn't an exact science. What if it doesn't go to plan and your opponent wins? Perhaps they know a bit of game strategy, too.
研究顯示，玩猜拳的人如果輸了這一把，下一把很可能會出別的，所以，對手很有可能會改成出剪刀或布。這就給了我們第二個優勢－－出剪刀就對了，我們不是贏就是平手。但這不是精確科學，並不是絕對的。如果一切沒有按照計畫走，對手贏了的話怎麼辦？可能他們也懂一點猜拳的小祕訣呢。
Tip three: Don't be predictable.
祕訣三：不要被輕易猜中。
If we lost the previous hand, then our opponent might reasonably expect us to switch to something else. This gives us our final edge—surprise them by sticking with our previous choice. Hopefully, they'll switch, expecting us to switch, and it should improve our chances. The less predictable you are, the better chance you have of winning.
如果我們上一把猜輸了，對手可能會合理地猜測我們會出別的。這就給了我們最後一種優勢－－繼續出一樣的，讓對方意想不到。我們希望的狀況是，他們猜測我們想換手勢，也跟著出了別的，這樣我們贏的機率就提高了。你越不容易被猜中，贏的機率就越高。
註一：母語人士玩猜拳遊戲時會唸 rock-paper-scissors，rock 是「石頭」的意思，是第一個被說出來的詞，和中文「剪刀石頭布」的順序不一樣。
- 「要是...就好了、但願」- if only
If only there was a way to improve those chances.
要是有方法可以提高勝率就好了。
