For years, Vladimir Putin has complained the U.S. and west have lied to Russia and have forced him to take action.
普丁近年來再三抱怨美國和西方國家對俄羅斯說謊，迫使他採取行動。
"You promised us in the 1990s that NATO would not move an inch to the east," he said just weeks ago. "You cheated us shamelessly."
「你在 1990 年代向我們保證，北約不會向東擴張半英寸。」他幾週前才這樣說道。「你無恥地欺騙我們。」
Michael McFaul is the former U.S. ambassador to Russia.
Michael McFaul 是前美國駐俄大使。
Putin has said, "The west, the United States, is provoking us, provoking me."
普丁說：「西方國家、美國在挑釁我們、挑釁我。」
That's ridiculous. Let's be clear—nobody's provoking Putin.
太荒謬了。先搞清楚－－沒有人在挑釁普丁。
This was how Europe was aligned at the peak of the Cold War. Split between willing NATO allies and blue to the west, and in red, countries that the Soviet Union used brutal force to keep in line with them. But when the Soviet Union fell, these eastern European countries now free aligned with the U.S. and NATO. Russia's sphere of influence and its geographic buffer against NATO now shrunk considerably. Five NATO countries even border Russia, and many now host U.S. military bases. And Ukraine? It sits here, almost alone between Russia and the West.
這是冷戰高峰期歐洲的結盟狀況。藍色的是自願加入北約的西方國家，而紅色的是蘇聯用殘忍武力控制的國家。但隨著蘇聯垮台，這些東歐國家現在能自由地和美國以及北約結盟。俄國的地域影響力及其跟北約之間的地理屏障已大大縮減。甚至有五個北約盟國與俄羅斯接壤，許多國家現在也有美軍駐紮。那烏克蘭呢？它在這裡，幾乎單獨夾在俄羅斯和西方的交界處。
Too many people are believing that this is somehow about NATO expansion, but it's really about an unprovoked military invasion should Putin decide to go in.
太多人相信這跟北約的擴張有關，但這其實是普丁一意孤行的軍事入侵行動。
Many are wondering, Why Ukraine and why now?
很多人想不透，為何是烏克蘭以及為何是現在？
Oh, why now, I think because President Putin has been obsessed with bringing Ukraine back into subjugation to Russia. Putin believes that the Slavic nation, of which he considers Russians and Ukrainians to be part of a single nation, was unfairly and incorrectly broken up during the collapse of the Soviet Union 1991.
噢，為何是現在，我想是因為普丁總統很想重新併吞烏克蘭。普丁認為同為斯拉夫民族，俄羅斯和烏克蘭應該隸屬同個國家，但卻在 1991 年蘇聯解體時，被不公平、不正確地拆分開來。
A full-scale invasion would likely be the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II.
這場全面入侵可能會是二戰以來最大的衝突。
And it could likely destabilize international markets. On Friday, as tensions rose, the S&P 500 plunged nearly two percent—that's a drop of 2,500 dollars for the average of American 401k.
而且這可能會使國際市場動盪。隨著俄烏情勢升溫，星期五標普 500 指數暴跌近 2%－－相當於美國 401 k 退休金平均下跌了 2,500 美元。
And with Russia, a huge provider of oil to the world, gas prices are likely to go higher. They've already hit their highest level in eight years.
且因為俄羅斯是世界原油大國，天然氣價格可能會上漲。價格目前已來到八年來新高。
I think the mistake we make in the West sometimes is we think that Putin's some kind of rational actor, calculating the cost-benefit analysis of invasion, when, in fact, he's thinking about his place in the history books 50 years from now.
我覺得我們西方國家有時會犯的錯是，我們覺得普丁是理性的人，會計算入侵的成本和效益，事實上，他在想的是 50 年後他在歷史書上的地位。
- 「控制、操控某人」- keep in line
and in red, countries that the Soviet Union used brutal force to keep in line with them.
而紅色的是蘇聯用殘忍武力控制的國家。
